As the 2024 election nears, CNN data reporter Harry Enten highlighted the pivotal role White women voters might play in Vice President Kamala Harris’s campaign.
With recent polls showing former President Donald Trump gaining support among Latino and Black voters, Enten argued that White women, the largest group of likely voters, could tip the scales in favor of Harris.
Traditionally, White women have leaned Republican in presidential elections. In 2020, Trump won this demographic by seven points.
However, Enten’s recent analysis shows that Harris is performing better with White women than any Democratic candidate in recent memory, now trailing Trump by just one point among this group. Enten emphasized that if these trends continue, Trump could face historic lows with White women for a GOP candidate this century.
White women make up roughly 36% of the electorate, making them a significant voting bloc. Enten argued that while Trump appears to be gaining ground with Latino and Black voters, shifts among White women could have a more substantial impact due to their larger numbers.
Enten pointed to abortion as a major factor driving White women towards the Democratic ticket. The Supreme Court’s 2022 decision to overturn Roe v. Wade has elevated abortion as a top concern, especially among White women in battleground states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
According to a New York Times/Siena College survey, abortion is the leading issue for 27% of women in these states, where White voters constitute over 80% of the electorate.
Enten explained that Harris’s strong stance on reproductive rights is resonating with these voters, helping her outperform past Democratic candidates among White women.
Enten noted that White women in suburban areas of key battleground states are particularly influential.
Since the overturn of Roe v. Wade, there has been a notable shift among suburban White women away from the Republican Party. This trend could play a critical role in Harris’s success, as these areas were pivotal in previous elections.
Enten highlighted that even modest gains among White women could significantly influence the election outcome, given the size of this demographic.
For instance, a five- or six-point swing toward Harris among White women could offset Trump’s gains among Black and Latino voters, who make up smaller portions of the electorate.
While Harris appears to be underperforming among White men, women of color, and men of color compared to President Joe Biden’s 2020 performance, Enten argued that her strong lead with White women could still secure her the election.
He suggested that the combination of her stance on key issues like abortion and the shift in support among suburban White women could be enough to make up for her weaker numbers elsewhere.
Enten concluded that if Harris wins, it will likely be due to her unprecedented support among White women. This bloc’s influence, especially in swing states, makes it a decisive factor that could shape the overall election outcome.
Harry Enten’s analysis underscores the importance of White women voters in the 2024 election. As Harris gains ground with this key demographic, Democrats could potentially capitalize on issues like reproductive rights to strengthen her position.
With less than three weeks to go, White women in battleground states remain a crucial piece in predicting the outcome. Enten believes that if Harris prevails, it will largely be thanks to her success in capturing this significant voting bloc.
